Moderately Baseless Oscar Nomination Predictions

In 2012, I made what I called "completely baseless Oscar nomination predictions," having seen only 1 or 2 films in award consideration. Last year, I upped it to "somewhat baseless Oscar nomination predictions," having seen 5 films in consideration. This year I've seen six, so we're only bumping it slightly to moderately baseless. I'll predict the 5 nominees in each of the big 8 categories, plus 1 I'm guessing will probably get in instead of who I picked, and 1 I wish was in consideration. For Best Picture, I think there will be 9 nominees, but I will also list my guess for what the 10th would be if they go for the full 10. Nominees listed alphabetically. Here we go:

Original Screen Play

My Picks:
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewin Davis
Nebraska

Who I Probably Missed:
Dallas Buyer's Club

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Saving Mr. Banks

Adapted Screen Play

My Picks:
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave

Who I Probably Missed:
The Wolf of Wall Street

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
I haven't actually seen many films that fall in here, so I'll just say Lone Survivor for Peter Berg

Supporting Actress

My Picks:
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
 Who I Probably Missed:
June Squibb, Nebraska

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street

Supporting Actor

My Picks:
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club

Who I Probably Missed:
James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
George Clooney, Gravity

Actress

My Picks:
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Who I Probably Missed:
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Whichever of those 6 above doesn't make it. And, without seeing Enough Said, Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Actor

My Picks:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Who I Probably Missed:
Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Director

My Picks:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze, Her
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Who I Probably Missed:
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, This Is the End

Picture

My Picks:
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewin Davis
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

(Saving Mr. Banks)
Who I Probably Missed:
Blue Jasmine, The Butler, Nebraska, Philomena

Who I Wish Had a Shot:
This Is the End